Whatever enables the air conditioning that makes life livable during this hot North Carolina summer doesn’t matter to most of us. We just want our AC systems to work, while hoping our electric bills don’t get too crazy.
Unfortunately, keeping the system reliable without breaking the bank is getting much tougher. Rumblings that there won’t be enough power generation for reliable service, and that electric bills will skyrocket, are becoming louder.
Hopefully, those holding the keys to energy policy are making shrewd moves to address these issues — while the rest of us just enjoy the AC.
That may not be happening, says John Szoka. He’s a former Republican state representative from Fayetteville who now is CEO of the Conservative Energy Network, which has a national footprint and says its mission is to “champion secure, reliable, affordable, clean American energy.”
Its members include Conservatives for Clean Energy, a Raleigh based group led by Mark Fleming that has chapters in six states from Virginia to Florida. The network’s leaders believe fiscal conservatism and support for solar and wind energy aligns with energy efficiency. It isn’t beholden to the oil and gas, nuclear or electric utility industries, or the environmental movement, which may make it unique, he says.
To make progress in Congress and statehouses, Szoka says simplifying issues and sticking to facts is critical because lawmakers are overwhelmed with complex problems. Too often, the loudest voices have the main influence, despite holding fringe viewpoints that often cause more harm than good.
That happened with some energy policy decisions included in the megabill passed by Congress in July, Szoka contends.
The overriding problem, he says, is that the U.S. will need more than 100 gigawatts of additional energy generation by 2030 because of surging demand nationally. The main reasons are data centers needed for artificial intelligence computing and the expansion of domestic manufacturing, he says. Think of Toyota’s $15 billion investment in Randolph County, and Amazon’s $10 billion plan Richmond County.
But fewer than 5 gigawatts of additional generation is likely to come on board from non-renewable projects by 2030 because it takes so long to expand existing capacity or add new projects, Szoka adds.
The generation picture gets brighter in the late 2030s if the Trump Administration’s plans for revitalizing the nuclear energy, coupled with the “drill baby drill” strategy for the oil and gas industry, pan out, he says.
For the short term, though, the difference between 5 gigawatts and 100 gigawatts is a real problem. Logically, one would expect continued investment in solar, wind and other renewables projects, which have added five times as much energy generation in the U.S. since 2019 versus non-renewable sources, Apollo Global Management reports. North Carolina’s 700-plus solar power farms reflect that trend.
Much of that was spurred by the Clean Energy Act in 2007 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which provided subsidies for clean energy. Szoka and other proponents say it’s worked to keep the lights on and moderate rate hikes. Naysayers call it “greenscam” and a distorted market.
In July, the naysayers won. The “Big Beautiful Bill” phases out most tax credits for rooftop solar, battery storage plugins and some electric-vehicle incentives by the end of this year. The change will severely dent clean energy development, Szoka says.
A test case will be Raleigh-based Southern Energy Management, which Bob and Maria Kingery started in 2001 and sold to seven long-term employees in March. Its revenue will likely decline 60% to 80% next year, co-owner Graham Alexander told the Wall Street Journal in July.
Szoka’s group believes in free markets, and agrees that some subsidies are excessive. He hopes utility industry execs will work with Congress to review how the megabill may cost jobs in the renewables sector, reduce competition and aid foreign rivals.
“If you don’t want electric bills going through the roof over the next five years, you might not want to cut the solar and wind industries off at the knees with very little notice,” he says. “We have a real concern that we may be susceptible to brownouts and escalating prices for electricity.” ■
David Mildenberg is editor of Business North Carolina. Reach him at dmildenberg@businessnc.com.