The N.C. Commerce Department’s annual ratings of the economic status of the state’s counties involved 18 changes this year, causing some head-scratching not unlike the debate among college football fans over who should make up the 12-team College Football Playoff.
State officials use these rankings to shape economic incentive packages, with 20 counties in the best-off Tier 3 required to share part of any recruiting aid with their 40 worse-off counterparts in Tier 1. Another 40 are in Tier 2.
The rankings consider four factors: a county’s average unemployment rate, median household income, population growth percentage and adjusted tax base per capita.
Perhaps this year’s most surprising result was Randolph County’s slide from Tier 2 to Tier 1, suggesting it is among the state’s most-distressed counties. The Piedmont county and its county seat, Asheboro, are best known as the home of the N.C. Zoo. But the county is also the site of the biggest corporate expansion in state history. Japanese automaker Toyota is investing about $14 billion in a massive complex to produce batteries for electric vehicles and hybrids, starting this year. Employment at the site 20 miles south of Greensboro is projected to eventually reach 5,100.
Such a high-profile project isn’t typical of Tier 1 counties. But, commerce officials attribute Randolph’s slide to a decline of 11 positions in its per-capita tax base and a 14-position decline in median household income, relative to other counties.
At $90,480 per person in the county of about 148,000 residents, Randolph’s tax base is the 10th-worst of North Carolina’s 100 counties. Edgecombe County in eastern North Carolina is at the bottom at $78,238 per person.
A factor in the tax base calculation is the timing of county valuations, however. Randolph is in the middle of a four-year revaluation cycle, with current values taking effect in 2023. Toyota started grading the factory site in early 2022, so there’s some lag.
County Manager Zeb Holden’s recent budget requests show that the Randolph tax base increased 30% in 2023 to $16.6 billion, from $12.8 billion during the previous cycle. The fiscal 2024-25 request was the first to credit Toyota with increasing Randolph’s tax base, which now stands at $17.2 billion. Toyota accounts for almost $1.1 billion, or about 5.8%. The factory generated an additional $1.6 million of revenue, helping balance Randolph’s budget at a level 11% higher than before, without a tax increase.
“A new era is about to begin for Randolph County,” Holden says in his budget message.
Tax base is also a big factor in Granville County, as the per-capita number there is $129,003, ranking 50th in the state. That was an increase of 14 places. Still, Granville remained among the 20 counties in the most-distressed Tier 3 ranking.
Granville benefits from spillover growth from the Triangle, mainly around Creedmoor and Butner, but also now impacting Oxford. A revaluation this year caused its tax base to rise nearly 60% to $8.7 billion. Its population was about 61,000 in 2020.
North Carolina’s most-distressed county is Scotland County, around Laurinburg on the border with South Carolina. It has bottom-10 rankings in three measures, and the state’s worst unemployment rate of 6.4% between November 2023 and October 2024.
Conversely, Currituck County topped the state list, aided by soaring beach property values in the coastal county that touches Virginia. It had top-10 rankings in three categories, and ranked 12th for median household income.
Nine counties moved up in the latest rankings. Cherokee, Chowan, Duplin, Gates, Haywood, Jones, Onslow and Pasquotank counties each moved from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Haywood joined Granville County in Tier 3, on the strength of its median household income. Its population is about 32,000.
Conversely, nine counties slid in the rankings. Along with Randolph, they were Alexander, Caldwell, Camden, Cleveland, Davie, McDowell, Montgomery and Surry. Camden and Davie counties dropped out of Tier 3, making way for Granville
and Haywood. ■
