Back-to-school math is adding up to higher expenses for families wary that they’re going to pay about 10% more for clothing, shoes and supplies.
Partly due to tariffs, 57% of shoppers worry about affording basic necessities, up 7 percentage points from last year, KPMG found in an online survey of 2,500 U.S. adults in the U.S. That’s despite one in three respondents feeling better about their financial situation than in 2024.
Thirty-seven percent of shoppers expect to spend more per child for back to school, with almost three-quarters saying they anticipate higher costs, KPMG said in a statement. Nearly six in 10 say apparel prices have increased over the past six months, spurring some to buy fewer items and shop at more affordable retailers.
Broadly, some families are eating out less and “regardless of income level, are exercising agility with their finances — being intentionally selective where and when they spend their resources: choosing banks that offer lower fees, switching insurance policies to lower cost providers, and delaying automotive purchases until they know what impact tariffs may have on prices,” according to audit, tax and advisory services firm’s Consumer Pulse Back to School Report.
“Economic uncertainty is driving fundamental shifts in how American families make financial decisions,” said Joe Paradise, KPMG’s Charlotte office managing partner. “We’re seeing consumers become highly strategic ‘Smart Shoppers’ who prioritize discounts over brand loyalty and are willing to make significant trade-offs — like cutting back on dining out — to afford essentials like back-to-school expenses.
“These aren’t temporary adjustments,” Paradise said in an email. “They represent structural changes in household spending patterns that reflect families’ ongoing concerns about affording basic necessities.”
Conducted in April, early in the Trump administration’s still-uncertain tariff policies, the survey measured expectations by respondents. It found 52% plan to buy less overall due to tariffs, while 12% plan no spending changes due to tariffs.
The survey cited “escalating economic volatility, including tariffs, sticky inflation and elevated prices” in shaping consumer sentiment.
Volatility “is prompting consumers to change their behavior, as they look for more clarity on how tariffs impact pricing,’’ KPMG said. “Their resilience, which has been surprisingly stable, is once again being tested as they assess uncertainties in cost of living, job stability and personal risk tolerance in an unpredictable economic landscape.”
A NerdWallet survey says parents of K-12 or college students who plan to back-to-school shop estimate they’ll spend $741, on average, for expenses such as clothing, supplies and books. That’s $200 more than last year’s average.
